Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Technical Indicators Flash Warning

Bitcoin's long-term technical indicators are flashing warning signals that have sparked fierce debate about whether the cryptocurrency's bull run has come to an end.

Crypto₿irb, who commands an audience of 700,000 followers on X, declared the bull market officially over from a technical standpoint.

According to Crypto₿irb on X, Bitcoin exhibits "a persistent trend shift confirmed by price percentage traveled, volume spikes, above-the-average volatility, time below the 200-day trend, and worsened breadth." The analyst's post garnered over 43,200 views and triggered widespread discussion among traders.

The analysis centers on Bitcoin's 200-day trend indicator, which analysts use to gauge trend strength and identify potential breakouts.

This bearish signal comes alongside a death cross formation in mid-November, when the 200-day moving average dipped below the shorter 50-day moving average. These indicators serve as critical long-term support levels for identifying bull and bear market transitions.

Markus Thielen from 10x Research echoed the bearish sentiment, stating there is no debate that Bitcoin is in a bear market.

He characterized the current price action as a bear market reversal rally rather than genuine bullish momentum.

Market Participants Push Back

Not everyone agrees with the bearish assessment. As Timbo78625468 tweeted on X, the analysis relies on a "random bull support line" and dismisses the prediction entirely.

The user pointed out that Bitcoin still maintains higher highs and higher lows since the bear market bottom, suggesting the bull trend remains technically intact even with potential downside movement.

Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer at Apollo Capital, offered a nuanced perspective. While acknowledging that buying pressure from digital asset treasuries has diminished compared to the first half of the year, he stopped short of declaring a bear market. Andersson emphasized that risk assets overall will determine the direction forward.

The debate highlights the complexity of reading Bitcoin's technical landscape. Analyst 52kskew provided a more optimistic short-term outlook on X, noting that the four-hour chart shows constructive signs for bulls.

According to 52kskew on X, momentum points toward the upside if buyers can maintain strength, with price holding above the four-hour 50 EMA and RSI above 50.

Critical Price Levels to Watch

52kskew identified specific thresholds that will determine Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. The $88,000 level represents a critical line in the sand. A move back below this price would signal weakness and failed momentum to drive higher.

The key battleground sits between $90,000 and $92,000, which 52kskew described as the initial area for the market to fight over structural trend direction. Bitcoin approached $92,000 on Coinbase during early Thursday trading but retreated to $91,200 by publication time.

The technical picture presents mixed signals depending on timeframe analysis. While long-term indicators suggest deteriorating conditions, shorter timeframes show potential for recovery. Volume spikes and above-average volatility have accompanied the recent price action, adding complexity to market interpretation.

Crypto₿irb's prediction extends into 2026, forecasting a year of declines ahead. This contrasts sharply with bulls who argue the fundamental bull market structure remains intact despite recent weakness.

The diverging views reflect broader uncertainty about Bitcoin's path forward. Traditional technical indicators point toward caution, yet market structure arguments suggest resilience. The coming weeks will test whether bulls can reclaim key levels or if bears will push prices lower.

Related reading: Semler Scientific Goes All-In on Bitcoin—$25M Buy Spurs Investor Doubts

Related reading: Block Joins S&P 500 Unleashing Bitcoin Shockwaves