Bitcoin reaches a critical 36-RSI level that has only appeared four times in history, each preceding massive bull runs. Current market structure shows whale accumulation and leverage cleanup.
Bitcoin has touched a critical technical threshold that has appeared just four times in its history, each preceding massive rallies. The weekly Relative Strength Index hitting 36 signals a potential inflection point that analysts say could propel prices toward $70,000.
The cryptocurrency trading at around $91,700 has entered oversold territory rarely seen outside major bear markets. According to AshCrypto on X, this Bitcoin indicator appeared during five distinct market phases.
"We've only seen BITCOIN touched Weekly 36-RSI four times in history. -2015 Bear market, -2018 Bear market, -Covid Crash, -2022 Bear market. And now in 2025 correction. This tells me 2026 is going to be bullish."
Historical patterns show each 36-RSI touch preceded substantial recoveries. The 2015 bear market bottom led to a 9,000% rally by 2017. The 2018 capitulation eventually sparked a recovery to $64,000 by 2021. The COVID crash saw Bitcoin rebound from $3,800 to $69,000 within 18 months.
Market structure indicators reveal significant changes in trader positioning. Futures open interest has dropped to yearly lows, suggesting leverage has been flushed from the system. CryptosR_Us posted on X analyzing these shifts.
"THIS IS WHAT A HEALTHY BITCOIN FUTURES MARKET LOOKS LIKE. Open interest is at the lowest level of the year. That usually shows up during capitulation or apathy -- not euphoria. Leverage has been flushed out as prices rebounded. The overcrowded, fragile positioning is gone."
The analyst highlighted that current conditions create cleaner market structure for upward movement. Fewer forced liquidations and lower systemic risk typically precede sustainable rallies rather than market tops.
Whales Accumulate While Retail Capitulates at Lows
Trading flow analysis reveals stark divergence between retail and institutional behavior. ArdiNSC shared detailed data on X tracking spot versus perpetual markets.
"This is exactly why retail gets destroyed trading Bitcoin. The divergence between how retail trades and how whales trades is glaring. Retail & Mid-sized traders are panic selling the bottom. Meanwhile, Whales are happily accumulating those bags."
Spot trading data shows retail dumped $7.7 million in Bitcoin during recent weakness while whales absorbed $5.4 million. Simultaneously, retail traders piled $274 million into leveraged perpetual positions. Large holders distributed over half a billion dollars in short exposure directly into retail's buying.
This pattern confirms whales purchase physical assets at discounted prices while selling leveraged risk at premiums. The strategy exploits retail's tendency to flee spot holdings during dips while gambling on derivatives.
Technical Setup Points Toward $70K Target Zone
Chart patterns suggest potential downside targets could actually trigger the next major leg higher. Ali_Charts identified on X a bearish flag formation with specific implications.
"Bitcoin $BTC: If this is a bearish flag, the target is $70,000."
Bearish flags typically resolve downward, but in oversold conditions with 36-RSI readings, such moves often represent final capitulation before reversals. The $70,000 zone aligns with previous support levels and the 200-week moving average.
Bitcoin ETF flows remain subdued with 1,160 BTC in outflows last week totaling $105 million. Ali_Charts noted on X the absence of institutional accumulation through these vehicles.
"No signs of accumulation yet from Bitcoin ETFs! Last week saw 1,160 $BTC in outflows, about $105 million."
The lack of ETF buying suggests institutional demand has not returned despite favorable technical setups. However, historically, institutions accumulate after retail exits and leverage clears. Current futures market health and oversold RSI readings indicate preparation phases often precede institutional re-entry.
Historical Context Supports 2026 Rally Thesis
Each previous 36-RSI touch led to multi-month consolidation before explosive moves. The 2015 bottom took 18 months to develop into the 2017 bull market. The 2018 capitulation required nearly two years before the 2020-2021 rally.
Bitcoin closed December 2024 around $93,400 before declining to current levels near $91,700. The 2025 correction mirrors previous cycles where healthy pullbacks reset market structure. Reduced open interest, whale accumulation, and technical oversold conditions align with bottoming processes.
Market participants watching for confirmation signals include rising spot volumes, ETF inflow resumption, and breakout above $95,000 resistance. The weekly 36-RSI reading provides historical context suggesting current weakness may represent opportunity rather than danger.
The cryptocurrency has demonstrated resilience through multiple 36-RSI touches, each time recovering to reach new all-time highs within subsequent cycles.
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Bitcoin 36-RSI Signals Bull Run—Targets $70K
Bitcoin hits rare 36-RSI level seen only 4 times before major rallies. Whales accumulate while retail sells. Analysts eye $70K target for 2026 bull market setup