XRP faces its biggest test as $23 billion in Bitcoin options expire, creating potential for a major breakout. With Binance reserves at 18-month lows and liquidity data favoring upside moves toward $2.50, analysts see 2026 as a pivotal year despite short-term volatility around key support levels.
The cryptocurrency market is bracing for its largest Bitcoin options expiry in history, with over $23 billion in notional value set to expire. This massive event has kept XRP and other major digital assets locked in tight trading ranges for weeks. However, multiple analysts now point to evidence suggesting XRP could be positioning for a significant breakout as artificial price pressure eases.
Exchange data reveals a dramatic shift in XRP supply dynamics. Binance reserves have plummeted to 2.66 billion XRP, marking the lowest level since July 2024. This sharp decline in exchange holdings typically signals bullish sentiment, as whales and long-term investors move tokens into self-custody rather than keeping them available for selling.
According to Xaif_Crypto on X, despite recent price corrections, Binance XRP reserves have dropped sharply, hinting at a possible end to selling pressure. The analyst noted that major drops in exchange reserves are widely viewed as bullish indicators.
The combination of reduced supply on exchanges and strong support at the $1.80 level creates what market observers call a potential supply shock setup. When fewer tokens remain available for immediate selling, even modest buying pressure can trigger sharp price movements.
Liquidity Maps Signal Upside Potential
YouTuber Zach Rector has provided detailed analysis suggesting XRP approaches a major breakout due to extreme market conditions. In updates shared by The Crypto Basic on X, Rector emphasized that while short-term volatility may shake out weak hands, the overall setup points toward a strong upside move.
According to The Crypto Basic on X, Rector noted that the crypto market is heading into the largest Bitcoin options expiry ever. He explained that events of this size force prices into tight ranges as market makers attempt to extract maximum value from both long and short positions.
This dynamic has kept Bitcoin and major altcoins like XRP locked in frustrating consolidation for weeks. Once these contracts expire, that artificial pressure typically eases, opening the door for sharp directional moves.
Rector's analysis of liquidity data across major exchanges reveals more money to be made pushing XRP upward than downward. A move toward the $2.50 level would trigger heavier short liquidations than the long liquidations if the price briefly dips toward the $1.60–$1.70 zone. Because of this imbalance, Rector warned traders to be prepared for a possible downside liquidity sweep, though any dip is unlikely to last long before a reversal.
Rector views XRP's extended range since late November as a deliberate holding pattern ahead of options expiry. He noted that market makers have kept price trapped to maximize profits, not because XRP's fundamentals have weakened. A move back above $2.50 would signal that the local bottom is in and that XRP is ready to trend higher. At press time, XRP is trading at $1.87, up 1.15% over the past day.
Record ETF Activity Fuels Institutional Interest
Beyond short-term price action, record-setting ETF activity has emerged as a key structural tailwind for XRP. The U.S. ETF industry has experienced unprecedented growth, with XRP ETFs standing out within that trend.
According to The Crypto Basic on X, U.S. ETFs attracted $1.4 trillion in net inflows in 2025, a historic record. ETF trading volume reached $57.9 trillion, also a new high. XRP's spot ETF from Canary Capital set the day-one volume record.
Moreover, XRP ETFs recorded one of the strongest inflows of the year, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced outflows. Rector sees this as evidence of growing institutional interest in XRP.
Looking ahead, Rector argued that XRP is being accumulated below its perceived fundamental value. He pointed to expanding ETF adoption, institutional positioning, and an eventual liquidity expansion as reasons 2026 could deliver massive tailwinds for XRP. In his view, the current weakness is more about positioning and pressure from derivatives than long-term fundamentals.
Rector said traders should watch closely for volatility around key downside levels near $1.60–$1.70 and resistance around $2.50. A brief sweep lower followed by a sharp recovery would align with his breakout thesis. While he expects near-term turbulence, Rector maintains that XRP's consolidation phase is nearing an end, and the asset may be setting up for a much stronger move as the market turns toward 2026.
Key Takeaways:
- Binance XRP reserves dropped to 2.66B, lowest since July 2024, signaling reduced selling pressure and bullish sentiment
- $23B Bitcoin options expiry creating tight ranges; liquidity maps show more profit potential pushing XRP toward $2.50
- XRP ETFs set day-one volume records with $1.4T total ETF inflows while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows
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XRP $23B Options Expiry: Supply Shock Setup
XRP faces largest Bitcoin options expiry as Binance reserves hit July lows. Liquidity data and record ETF flows signal potential breakout above $2.50.