Bitcoin's liveliness metric reaches unprecedented peaks as dormant coins activate at historic scale, signaling the bull cycle may continue. Meanwhile, over 100 companies copying Michael Saylor's treasury strategy see median stock prices crash 43% as debt obligations expose structural flaws.
Bitcoin defies critics as key metrics hit new highs, while corporate treasury companies hemorrhage value. The cryptocurrency's resilience sparks debate about its true nature as both institutional adoption faces cracks and on-chain indicators suggest the cycle continues.
Bitcoin's liveliness metric has reached unprecedented peaks, signaling dormant coins are moving at historic scale. This on-chain indicator measures the ratio of coins being transacted relative to those held, weighted by age.
The metric increases when older coins are spent more frequently, typically during bull markets when fresh capital enters the ecosystem.
According to Coin Bureau on X, the bull market cycle may not be finished. The account noted that liveliness just hit new highs, suggesting underlying strength despite recent price consolidation around $89,000.
Dormant Coins Activate at Unprecedented Scale
The current reactivation of dormant Bitcoin supply surpasses patterns seen during the 2017 bull run. Unlike previous cycles where transactions ranged from hundreds to thousands of dollars, today's movements involve billions in value.
Glassnode data shows liveliness breaking out of the corridor it remained stuck in from the 2017 all-time high. This breakout represents one of the greatest capital rotations in Bitcoin history, with coin days destroyed surging as long-held positions enter circulation.
The scale of this movement dwarfs previous cycles. Transaction values have scaled to tens of billions of dollars, marking an extreme shift in market dynamics. This metric historically rises during bull phases as supply changes hands at elevated prices, reflecting inflows of new capital.
Despite lower prices compared to recent peaks, liveliness continues advancing. This divergence establishes a solid demand baseline not yet visible in spot prices, suggesting the bull market structure remains intact beneath surface volatility.
Saylor Playbook Backfires as Copycat Firms Crash
More than 100 publicly traded companies transformed themselves into cryptocurrency-holding vehicles in the first half of 2025, borrowing billions to buy digital tokens. The strategy initially appeared unstoppable, with stock prices soaring past the value of underlying assets.
Digital asset treasury companies copying Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy have seen median stock prices drop 43% year-to-date, according to Bloomberg. SharpLink Gaming epitomized the frenzy, with stock exploding 2,600% before crashing 86% from peak levels.
Strategy's monthly Bitcoin accumulation has collapsed from 134,000 BTC at the 2024 peak to just 9,100 BTC in November. The company added only 135 BTC in December so far, holding approximately 650,000 BTC valued at over $56 billion.
The fundamental problem stems from how these companies fund purchases. Strategy and imitators issued massive amounts of convertible bonds and preferred shares, raising over $45 billion across the industry. These debt instruments carry substantial interest obligations that cryptocurrency holdings cannot service, creating structural mismatch between liabilities and assets.
Strategy shares have dropped 60% from July highs. At December's Binance Blockchain Week, Saylor outlined a revised approach, stating that when equity trades below Bitcoin's net asset value, the company would consider selling derivatives or the Bitcoin itself. This reversal raises fears of a downward spiral where forced sales push prices lower.
Tulip Comparison Demolished by 17-Year Track Record
As Eric Balchunas posted on X, the tulip comparison falls apart when examining time. According to Balchunas on X, tulips rose and collapsed in three years, but Bitcoin has comeback from six to seven major downturns to reach all-time highs, surviving 17 years.
Balchunas emphasized on X that the endurance alone warrants shedding the tulip comparison. The asset remains up 250% over the past three years and gained 122% last year, he noted. Some people hate this asset and want to enrage those who like it, but that will probably never change.
Garry Krug posted on X that the tulip comparison fails the moment you examine time. As Krug tweeted on X, bubbles do not survive multiple cycles, regulatory battles, geopolitical stress, halvings, exchange failures and still return to new highs.
Bitcoin has taken every hit the market can throw and kept compounding, Krug stated on X. That kind of durability is the opposite of mania. It is what real monetary assets look like in their adolescence, he added on the platform. The criticisms persist not because they are accurate, but because some would rather recycle old narratives than confront what the last seventeen years have proven, Krug noted in his X post.
Balchunas also questioned on X whether non-productive assets like gold, Picasso paintings, or rare stamps would be compared to tulips. Assets are allowed to cool off once in a while, and people are overanalyzing recent consolidation, he argued.
The cryptocurrency has demonstrated repeated recoveries from severe market cycles, regulatory pressures, and global challenges. Unlike the Dutch tulip mania that peaked in 1637 before plummeting over 90% in weeks, Bitcoin has bounced back to all-time highs after each significant selloff.
Bitcoin's halving events—reducing new supply every four years—enhance its scarcity, driving long-term appreciation. This structural feature differentiates it from historical bubbles driven purely by speculation.
3 Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin liveliness metric hits new all-time highs, suggesting bull market cycle continues despite price consolidation
- Over 100 Saylor copycat treasury companies see median stock prices crash 43% year-to-date amid debt pressures
- ETF experts demolish Bitcoin-tulip comparisons, citing 17-year track record and repeated recoveries from downturns
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Bitcoin Bull Market: Liveliness Peaks As Saylor Fails
Bitcoin liveliness hits record highs signaling bull cycle continues, while Saylor copycats crash 43%. Experts demolish tulip bubble comparisons.