Bitcoin's Fakeout Trap: $92K Break or Brutal Dump?

Bitcoin failed to reclaim the critical $92,000 resistance level during its latest rally attempt, triggering fresh concerns about a potential revisit to the yearly open at $87,600. The rejection comes as on-chain indicators flash mixed signals about whether bulls can mount a sustained recovery.

The digital asset spiked above $92,000 in overnight trading before getting sharply rejected, losing the $91,200 support level in the process. This price action has traders questioning whether recent strength represents a genuine trend reversal or merely a liquidity grab before further downside.

According to cryptorover on X, "Bitcoin is dumping again and was unable to hold $91,200 as support. The next local level to hold here is $89,800. If we lose that, the yearly open at $87,600 is likely next."

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STH-SOPR Attempts Bullish Breakout After Three-Month Slump

Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) fell below the critical 1.0 threshold on October 10, marking the start of a three-month bearish period. CryptoQuant analysis reveals this metric has historically acted as a reliable trend indicator, with the 1.0 line serving as resistance during bearish phases and support during bull markets.

The indicator attempted its first escape above 1.0 this week, offering tentative hope for bulls. However, the move remains unconfirmed as Bitcoin struggles to maintain price levels that would validate the breakout.

The CryptoQuant report notes that STH-SOPR's behavior during previous cycles shows clear patterns. When the metric breaks above 1.0 after extended periods below it, trend reversals often follow. Current price action suggests this could be a fakeout rather than confirmation of renewed bullish momentum.

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TedPillows noted on X that "$BTC tried to reclaim the $92,000 level again but failed. This is a very level to reclaim for a sustained rally. If Bitcoin fails to break and hold above the $92,000 level, the chances of revisiting the 2026 yearly open will go up."

Liquidity Hunt Above $92K Sets Up Bearish Continuation

Technical traders identified the recent price spike as a liquidity grab above the $92,000 high, with sellers immediately stepping in after triggering stop losses. The move aligns with bearish scenarios outlined by traders expecting downside continuation toward lower support zones.

Lennaert Snyder explained on X, "$BTC grabbed liquidity above ~$92,000 and dumped. Our plan from last Saturday is playing out nicely, taking out liquidity above the ~$92,000 high, followed by bearish continuation."

Snyder outlined potential re-entry points for shorts, targeting the $91,700 retracement zone or the $93,720 weak high. The bearish thesis remains valid unless Bitcoin reclaims the $94,700 monthly high, which serves as the critical invalidation point.

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The $89,800 level now emerges as the next critical support zone. A break below this threshold would likely accelerate selling pressure toward the $87,600 yearly open. Bulls need to reclaim and hold $92,000 decisively to shift near-term momentum back in their favor.

Short-term holders who bought near recent highs face mounting pressure as unrealized losses deepen. The STH-SOPR indicator's attempted breakout above 1.0 requires confirmation through sustained price strength above key resistance levels.

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The current structure suggests sellers maintain control unless Bitcoin can reclaim the $92,000-$94,000 range. Traders watch for either a decisive breakout above resistance or acceleration toward lower support zones in coming sessions.

3 KEY TAKEAWAYS

1. Bitcoin rejected $92K resistance, losing $91.2K support with $89.8K and $87.6K yearly open as next targets

2. STH-SOPR attempted first breakout above 1.0 after three months below threshold but remains unconfirmed

3. Liquidity grab above $92K suggests bearish continuation unless BTC reclaims $94.7K monthly high decisively