Bitcoin is trading below a critical $100K threshold that historically determines market direction. The 6-12 month holder cost basis could trigger either a rally to new highs or a drop to $90K support.
Bitcoin is currently trading below a critical threshold that historically determines whether the market enters a sustained bull run or continues bleeding. This single level near $100K could flip the entire market structure within weeks.
According to TedPillows on X, $BTC is now attempting to reclaim the 2025 yearly open level. A few daily closes above the zone mean Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in a few weeks. A fakeout means BTC will drop towards the $90,000-$91,000 support zone.
The digital asset is trading below the cost basis of coins that last moved 6-12 months ago. When price sits under this level, the broader trend leans bearish and downside risk remains elevated.
Bitcoin reclaiming the 6-12 month holder cost basis would mark a transition toward a bullish trend and open room for additional upside. After weeks of sideways movement, BTC is showing early signs of a rebound.
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6-Month Holder Cost Basis: The $100K Battleground
The 6-12 month holder cost basis sits near $100K. This metric represents the average acquisition price for coins held between six months and one year. When Bitcoin trades below this level, it signals that medium-term holders are underwater on their positions.
Historical data shows that when price sits under the 6-12 month cost basis, the broader trend leans bearish. Failure to break above it would signal the broader downtrend remains intact. Whether the market flips bullish comes down to this single level.
A CryptoQuant analysis reveals that if Bitcoin can reclaim the 6-12 month holder cost basis, the market structure shifts. That break typically marks a transition toward a bullish trend.
The yearly open level for 2025 adds another layer of significance. This level acts as a psychological barrier where traders assess whether BTC can maintain gains accumulated over the previous year.
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Technical Setup Points to Imminent Volatility
Bitcoin needs multiple daily closes above the 2025 yearly open to confirm strength. Short-term price action shows consolidation near key resistance zones with reduced selling pressure. A clean break above $100K would likely trigger momentum buying from sidelined capital.
The support zone between $90,000-$91,000 represents the last line of defense before deeper corrections. If BTC fails to hold above the yearly open, a retest of this lower range becomes probable.
Trading volume has compressed during the recent sideways movement, suggesting a volatility expansion is approaching. Compressed volatility typically precedes sharp directional moves as accumulated positions unwind rapidly.
The structure indicates that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. Either the 6-12 month cost basis gets reclaimed and sparks a rally toward new highs, or price breaks down toward the $90K support zone and extends the correction phase.
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Market positioning shows that many traders are waiting for confirmation before entering new positions. A decisive move above $100K would likely trigger stop-loss orders from short positions and attract fresh buying interest.
The coming weeks will determine whether Bitcoin can sustain a breakout above the critical cost basis level or if another leg down materializes. The current price action suggests the market is coiling for a significant move in either direction.
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3 Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin must reclaim the 6-12 month holder cost basis near $100K to confirm a bullish market structure shift
- Daily closes above 2025 yearly open level could trigger a rally to $100K within weeks according to technical analysis
- Failure to break resistance means BTC risks dropping to $90K-$91K support zone in extended correction phase
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Bitcoin's $100K Trigger: One Level Flips Market
Bitcoin trades below critical $100K level that historically determines bull or bear markets. 6-12 month cost basis holds the key to next major move.