CVX peaked a day before swanUSD launched. That is the plainest fact in the CVX swanUSD airdrop story, and the candles show it. On October 27, as of 16:00 UTC, CVX trades at $2.311 on Binance spot. That is 14.9% under the October 21 high of $2.715 and 11% over the roughly $2.08 it sat at when Convex first posted about the airdrop.
CVX swanUSD airdrop timeline, October 19 to 26
- Oct 19, 20:45 UTC. Convex Finance tells vlCVX holders they are eligible for the launch airdrop of Monolith’s new stablecoin, swanUSD. To collect, they must stake swanUSD as sSwanUSD after launch and hold it through a window, for an equal share of the pool. Monolith describes swanUSD as a DAO-governed stablecoin backed by wstETH, with 100,000 SWAN, 1% of supply, set aside for eligible holders, and gives the launch as Thursday, October 22 at 16:00 UTC. CVX closes the day at $2.098.
- Oct 20. CVX closes at $2.401, up 14.4%. Spot volume is $2.39 million against $0.60 million the day before.
- Oct 21. Volume reaches $5.03 million. The busiest hour is 01:00 UTC at $552,000. The high of $2.715 comes in the 15:00 UTC hour on $291,000, and the day closes at $2.621.
- Oct 22. Monolith posts that swanUSD is live. CVX closes at $2.450.
- Oct 23, 06:51 UTC. Convex repeats the news. Closes from here: $2.427 on Friday, $2.527 on Saturday, $2.475 on Sunday and $2.375 on Monday.
These are dated posts. They do not show that the CVX swanUSD airdrop caused the move in CVX, and no source found says it did.
The launch hour was quiet
The CVX swanUSD airdrop launch time Monolith gave passed with almost nothing to see. The 16:00 UTC candle on October 22 opened at $2.469 and shut at $2.453. Only $90,000 changed hands. Two days earlier the high came on $291,000 and the busiest hour hit $552,000, so the money had moved in long before Monolith went live.
Half the added futures positions have closed
Open interest on Binance’s CVX perpetual began the run at $2.10 million, the last hourly reading before the Convex post. It peaked at $5.39 million at 15:00 UTC on October 21, the same hour as the price high, and stood at $3.77 million at today’s 16:00 UTC reading. About half of the added positions have closed, and roughly $1.7 million of the increase is still open. The latest funding settlement was -0.0024%, shorts paying longs, which is near flat. Our BAT piece covered a different token with the same pattern of a jump in futures interest followed by a fade.
CVX swanUSD airdrop peers: Curve and TVL topped together
Convex is built on Curve, and CRV topped the same Wednesday. Its spot close was $0.4028 on October 21, up from $0.3679 two days earlier, and it is $0.3365 today. Over those two days CRV gained 9.5% where CVX gained 24.9%. DefiLlama shows Convex’s total value locked near $597 million on the 21st and $558 million now. Fees were $2.42 million over 30 days but only $84,000 in the latest 24 hours.
CVX at $2.31: range, RSI and two triggers
Four-hour RSI(14) topped out in the mid-80s on October 21 and reads 41.6 now. Price is back inside the $1.76 to $2.40 band that held for most of October, whose floor is the October 15 low of $1.758. The perpetual data labels CVX as inside its range. Both levels below are taken from Binance’s perpetual contract, using the last candle that closed at 16:00 UTC, when price was $2.302.
A bounce would start with an hourly close above $2.334, the October 24 swing low. From there the next stops are $2.362 and $2.375, and the idea is dead if an hourly candle closes back under $2.322. More weakness would begin with an hourly close below $2.254, today’s low, which points to $2.209 and then $2.164. A close back over $2.265 cancels that one.
Sources for the CVX swanUSD airdrop: Convex’s October 19 airdrop alert and October 23 follow-up, and DefiLlama for TVL and fees.
