CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain published two XRP QuickTakes in the last three days, and read together they describe a market where leverage is shrinking while coins move onto exchanges. In the newest, the XRP estimated leverage ratio on Binance reads about 0.169. In September it was 0.229. That is 26.2% lower in under a month. At 18:00 UTC on October 21, XRPUSDT on Binance changed hands near $1.39.
What the XRP estimated leverage ratio QuickTake shows
The QuickTake plots the ratio against XRP’s price. The author writes that the decline reflects less relative exposure to leveraged positions, and also cautions that it does not by itself signal a bearish or bullish trend.
Checking the leverage drop against Binance futures data
CryptoQuant’s ratio itself is not something we can rebuild from public endpoints, but Binance publishes open interest on its XRPUSDT perpetual. In dollar terms it was $560 million on September 23 and $414 million on October 21, down 26.1%. In coins the fall is smaller. Open interest was 356 million XRP on September 23 and 310 million XRP on October 21, down 12.9%, so part of the dollar drop is simply a lower price. That is our own calculation from Binance’s published data, not CryptoQuant’s.
The sharpest single step came October 8 to October 9. Open interest dropped from 321 million XRP to 295 million, about 8.1% in a day, right after XRP fell 5.1% on October 7 (from a $1.4971 close on October 6 to $1.4215) and tagged $1.3189 on October 8. Coinglass now shows $2.67 billion of 24-hour futures volume against $565.39 million on spot, about 4.7 times as much, and total open interest of $3.07 billion across exchanges.
XRP exchange inflows at a seven-month high
The second QuickTake measures a 30-day sum of XRP sent to exchanges. It puts the total at about 6.05 billion XRP, the highest in seven months. Binance took the largest share at about 2.46 billion. Bybit received about 580 million, OKX about 557 million and Upbit about 544 million. Bitget took roughly 285 million. KuCoin and Gate each took under 60 million.
Arab Chain is explicit that a rise in inflows does not by itself point to selling. The same figure can come from heavier trading or from routine transfers, and the post says the reading is more useful next to price action, volume and outflows.
Price: a bounce off $1.2562
XRP’s daily low for the month was $1.2562 on October 18. By October 21 it had reached $1.3992, a gain of about 11.4%. Daily RSI on the 14-day setting went from 33.3 on October 17 to 49.8 on October 21, still a partial day. The pair is inside its multi-week range, and Bitcoin, at $84,399, sits above its 100-day average of $74,801. Our October 5 top-down read and the September 30 liquidation map piece covered the earlier part of this slide.
XRP levels after the leverage drop
The bull case starts with a 1-hour close above $1.3987, today’s high, with $1.4209 and $1.4260 as targets. A 1-hour close back below $1.3917 voids it. The bear case starts with a 1-hour close below $1.3465, the prior day’s high, with $1.3306 and $1.3177 as targets. A 1-hour close back above $1.3533 voids that path.
