The split inside the XRP price chart is widening. Spot buyers keep stacking. Binance perp traders keep dumping into the rise.

XRP has reclaimed the $1.20 zone this week even as one of the heaviest waves of perpetual selling Binance has ever printed sits on the other side of the book. Two charts tell the story. They barely agree on anything.

That clash is the real signal here.

Spot Flows Tell One Story

CryptoQuant data published by analyst Amr Taha shows the All CEX Estimated Spot CVD climbing to $267.4 million. That’s the highest reading since mid-May. Back on April 12 the same metric sat at negative $177M.

So spot buyers came back. Not slowly. Hard.

The price recovery into the $1.20 area lines up cleanly with that buying wave, but the rest of the order book looks nothing like agreement.

Binance Perpetual CVD just printed a fresh record low of -$792.5 million. On May 12 the same figure was around negative $218 million. The drop since then is steep. Perp traders, basically, have been selling into the move up.

The 50 EMA Said No

XRP did try to push higher. It tagged the daily 50 EMA near $1.28 and got rejected straight away.

The 20 EMA at $1.20 is now where the chart leans. Trader ChartNerdTA flagged the exact structure on X with a marked-up daily chart showing the rejection, the neckline, and the higher low pattern carved out across early June.

“Yesterday, $XRP successfully tagged it’s daily 50 EMA ($1.28) and witnessed rejection. The daily 20 EMA ($1.20) is now currently acting as support. The double bottom neckline is also an area to watch for a bounce if we retrace deeper. Lose that, we likely head back towards $1.”

That last line carries weight. A break of the neckline opens a clean path back toward the $1 region. For the Kenyan retail XRP holder still sitting on bags from earlier in the cycle, that is the level worth watching, since that is where the structure cracks.

Open Positions Still Sitting There

Binance open interest on XRP is still elevated. About 251 million dollars worth. The figure has not really cleared since mid-May highs.

Translation: the stack of open positions has not been flushed.

When OI stays heavy while price chops around a key level, volatility tends to follow. Either spot demand keeps swallowing the perp selling and squeezes shorts, or the spot bid fades and the perpetual book drags price lower.

There is no middle gear in this kind of setup.

The Divergence That Won’t Resolve Quietly

The reason this matters is timing. Most XRP recoveries over the last six months have come with derivatives tailwinds. This one is not getting that.

Spot is buying. Perps are selling. Price is stuck.

If spot keeps absorbing the negative perp flow, short positions risk getting squeezed. That is the bull case in one sentence. The inverse holds with equal force: weakening spot demand layered on top of elevated open interest and aggressive perpetual selling is the kind of setup that turns into a quick flush lower.

Risk worth flagging plainly. XRP has now failed at the 50 EMA twice in this leg up. That is not a small detail. The double bottom neckline ChartNerdTA pointed to in his X post is the floor. Lose it, the $1 zone re-enters the conversation fast.

Volume on derivatives venues has been the dominant force on XRP for most of 2025. Spot briefly taking the wheel is the kind of shift worth tracking, even if nobody knows yet whether it holds.

For now, $1.20 to $1.28 is the battleground. Above $1.28, structure flips bullish. Below the neckline, bears get the next leg.