The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, two of its 12 voting policymakers dissenting in favor of a further quarter-point rise. It raised them in September.
The vote was 10 to 2. Beth Hammack and Lisa Cook were the dissenters. In September the same committee voted 12 to 0 for a quarter-point rise, from a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Traders now expect another increase in December.
The statement said economic activity is “expanding at a strong pace,” up from “solid” in September. Job gains, it said, have kept pace with the workforce. Inflation “remains elevated.” Uncertainty is high, partly because of geopolitical developments. No reason for the hold was given.
Crypto after the Fed held rates
Crypto barely moved after the Fed held rates. Two hours on, Bitcoin was about 0.5% higher, Ether up 0.9% and XRP up 1.1%, Binance spot data showed. Trading jumped for a few minutes right after the statement, to about five times normal for Bitcoin and nearly six times for XRP. Bitcoin swung between 80,722 and 81,186 in that quarter hour, Ether between 2,340 and 2,356 and XRP between 1.3141 and 1.3274.
Alphabet and Microsoft reported earnings the same evening, so the Fed was not the only news. On the XRP side, our XRP chart piece maps where price sat that day.
Higher rates make savings accounts and bonds pay more, which is why crypto traders watch the Fed. September’s hike did not hit prices. Bitcoin rose 1.2% the next day and 11% over the following week, and XRP gained 19%.
Now that the Fed held rates, Bitcoin sits between today’s low at 80,397 and today’s high at 81,823. It is down about 3.8% on the week and 3.1% on the month. A four-hour close above 81,823 would point to 82,061, the 23 October high. That idea fails if price closes back under 80,397. A close below 80,397 points to 79,506, the 27 October low, and fails on a close back above 81,823.
What the Fed does next
The next meeting is on 8 and 9 December. It is the last of the year and brings a fresh set of projections. Before Wednesday’s decision, CME Group’s FedWatch tool put an 83.3% chance on a quarter-point increase then and 16.7% on no change. A rise would lift the range to 4% to 4.25%.
The Fed’s own September projections had a median rate of 4.1% for the end of 2026, above today’s range. Wednesday’s hold was no surprise either. The same tool had put 90.6% on no change for that meeting.
Prices and jobs behind it
Prices are the main worry. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on 15 October that producer prices, what businesses charge before goods reach shoppers, rose 1.3% in September. Nothing bigger in a single month since March 2022. The yearly rate of 6.3% is the highest since December 2022. Bitcoin fell to 79.8k that day as CPI and PPI both ran hot.
Hiring is weaker. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September and unemployment was 4.2%, the bureau said on 2 October. The rate has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.
The October jobs report is due on Friday, 6 November, and the Fed’s next statement follows on 9 December.
