SUI hit 0.7796 dollars on Wednesday afternoon. Thirty hours earlier, on Tuesday morning, it hit 0.7783. Both times it got sold right back down within the hour. That’s not a coincidence, it’s the same resistance shelf getting tested twice, and both times the sellers showed up exactly where they showed up last time.
Binance order book data puts the token at 0.765 dollars as of Wednesday evening, down about eight tenths of a percent on the day. Small move on paper. But it caps off a stretch where SUI clawed back nearly a fifth of its value since bottoming at 0.6514 on June 25th, one of the sharper June sell offs across large caps, and now it’s stuck under a ceiling that’s held twice in about a day and a half.
Same Level, Two Rejections
The two rejection points sit close enough, 0.7783 and 0.7796, roughly thirteen hundredths of a cent apart, that traders working the ICT and Smart Money Concepts playbook would call them equal highs. Basically a pool of resting sell orders and stop losses that the market keeps trying to run through and failing.
The Sweep Before The Second Push
Between those two touches, SUI actually dipped hard. Hourly candles from Binance show a low of 0.7539 print at 6am UTC Wednesday, a level that swept below the prior session’s floor before buyers stepped back in. Classic stop hunt shape, grab the liquidity below, then rip back toward the highs. It worked, sort of. Price did make it back to a new marginal high on the second attempt. It just couldn’t hold there either.
Underneath that whole move sits a gap on the four hour chart that most traders would flag as a fair value gap, roughly between 0.7603 and 0.7646, carved out by a fast green candle Wednesday around noon UTC. It’s still unfilled. In ICT terms that’s often treated as a magnet. Price tends to want to come back and fill the imbalance before deciding its next direction, and right now Wednesday’s close sits just above it.
Momentum Isn’t The Problem Here
Daily RSI reads 57.7, elevated but nowhere near the 70 line traders use as a rough overbought marker. Zoom into the hourly timeframe at the exact moment of the second high, Wednesday at 4pm UTC, and RSI touched 64.5, still short of exhaustion territory. So this doesn’t look like a momentum blowoff top. It looks more like a level doing its job, a place where supply mechanically outweighs demand regardless of what the oscillators say.
Open Interest Doesn’t Lie
Here’s the part that stood out digging through Binance’s futures data. Open interest sits at roughly 96.9 million SUI, about 74.3 million dollars notional, and it actually dipped near 94.8 million during Wednesday’s liquidity sweep before climbing right back to 97.3 million into the retest of the highs. That’s not short covering. Short covering would shrink OI as positions close. This is fresh money opening new longs into a level that had already rejected price once.
Funding stayed mildly positive through the whole move, hovering around three ten thousandths of a percent every eight hours, cheap enough that nobody’s getting squeezed by the carry cost yet. The long and short numbers tell more of the story though. Retail accounts on Binance sit at 71.5% long versus 28.5% short, a ratio just over two and a half to one. The so called top trader cohort, Binance’s label for its larger position holders, isn’t much different: 66.6% long, 33.4% short, just under two to one. Everybody’s leaning the same way into a level that’s already said no twice.
A Year Of Losses, Four Weeks Of Basing
Pull back to the weekly chart and the bigger picture gets less flattering. SUI traded near 2.02 dollars in early January, and it’s currently sitting 85.7% below its all time high of 5.35 dollars, set back in January 2025. The June low near 0.65 is a full year of bag holders capitulating, basically, and the past four weeks of chop between 0.65 and 0.80 reads more like a base being built than a trend reversal confirmed. Eighteen percent off a low inside a downtrend that’s lasted the better part of a year isn’t nothing, but it’s not proof of a bottom either.
TVL Tells Its Own Story
DeFiLlama’s numbers add a layer that’s easy to miss if you’re only watching price. Total value locked on Sui sits at 442.44 million dollars, itself down from a peak north of 2.9 billion earlier this year, so the DeFi side of the network has bled almost as hard as the token has. Daily active addresses touching DeFi protocols came in at 165,669 over the past 24 hours, per DeFiLlama’s tracker, which at least suggests the chain still has real usage even while TVL keeps sliding.
More Supply Coming In Ten Days
Supply overhang is the other thing nobody’s pricing in loudly enough. SUI’s circulating supply sits at roughly 4.05 billion tokens against a hard cap of 10 billion, meaning less than half the eventual float is even out yet. Tokenomist’s unlock tracker shows the next release, going to the community reserve wallet, lands August 1st. These monthly unlocks have been a recurring headwind all year, and previous cycles where exchange inflows topped 8 million SUI in the first half day correlated with three to five percent price knockdowns within the following sessions.
Privacy Features And Old Bugs
On the builder side, Sui’s own blog confirmed on June 8th that confidential transfers, a privacy feature for hiding balances while keeping compliance hooks intact, is live in public beta on Devnet, not mainnet. Testnet is targeted for later this year. Worth flagging because some outlets have been sloppy about which network it’s actually running on. There’s also the January 14th network stall still in recent memory, a six hour consensus bug that halted block production before validators patched it and resumed without losing any certified transactions or user funds.
Put the pieces together and the setup reads less like a clean breakout and more like a market arguing with itself. Structure’s bullish, price is making higher lows since the June bottom and the daily uptrend channel is intact. Positioning is crowded long into a level that’s already rejected twice, open interest keeps rebuilding on every dip, and there’s a supply unlock landing in ten days. If 0.78 finally gives way, the long and short skew argues for a fast move given how one sided the futures positioning already is. If it doesn’t, that same crowded long book is exactly the kind of setup that unwinds hard once the first few stops start tripping.
