XRP has followed the same sequence after each of its last three major cycle peaks. The price tops out, the weekly Supertrend flips bearish, and the token pulls back to the 200-week exponential moving average. It happened in 2018. It repeated in 2022. And per a technical breakdown shared by ChartNerdTA on X, it is playing out again now following XRP’s July 2025 peak near $3.65.
The bounce off the 200-week EMA has already happened this cycle. What traders are watching now is whether it holds or eventually fails, because history offers two very different endings to this exact same setup.
Three Cycles, One Setup
“When XRP placed a cycle top in 2017, it flipped into a bearish red Supertrend. It came down and retested its 200-week EMA. The next cycle we did the same thing. We placed the local peak in 2021, flipped into a red bearish Supertrend, and then we retested the EMA. We’ve done the same thing this cycle,” ChartNerdTA stated on X.
After the 2018 retest, XRP did not collapse straight away. It bounced toward the upper band of the bearish Supertrend and then spent nearly a full year hovering around the 200-week EMA, from August 2018 through mid-2019. The breakdown came in August 2019 when XRP finally lost the level outright and exposed the remainder of the bear market into 2020.
The 2022 episode was shorter and sharper. XRP returned to the 200-week EMA and dropped straight through it. No extended consolidation, no sustained bounce. The level failed fast and the price moved lower quickly.
Two Outcomes, Same Starting Point
That contrast is what makes the current setup worth watching closely. The 2018 path gave holders nearly twelve months around the moving average before the real damage. The 2022 path gave almost none. Both cycles still ultimately lost the level.
“On the last two cycles, even if we have seen relief from the 200-week EMA, it’s followed by it being lost,” ChartNerdTA noted on X.
The 200-week EMA currently sits near $1.40, and XRP has been trading around that zone for several weeks with multiple closes both above and below it. ChartNerdTA acknowledged the bounce but placed it inside the same historical frame, where prior-cycle relief moves eventually resolved to the downside.
A potential flush toward 70 to 90 cents was not dismissed.
“If we are looking at a sort of 90-70 cent XRP, I would rather the pain just go out of the way now,” ChartNerdTA said on X.
Crowd Sentiment Reaches Two-Year Extreme
On-chain analytics firm Santiment added a separate but complementary signal to the picture. Per data shared by Santimentfeed on X, XRP social sentiment FUD has reached its third highest reading in the past two years. That deterioration built up following a 63% price decline across the nine months leading into April 2026.
Santiment’s historical data shows that when bullish commentary gets replaced by this volume of bearish crowd sentiment, the probability of a near-term relief rally rises. The model reads contrarian: when retail turns most negative, prices have tended to move against those expectations.
“With retail finally turning their backs on XRP after a -63% price drop over the past 9 months, this kind of signal can help you capitalize on their bearishness if you’re willing to be patient a bit longer,” Santiment wrote on X, linking to their live XRP sentiment chart for ongoing tracking.
Where Both Signals Land
The two readings point in a similar direction near-term but diverge on the longer view. Santiment’s FUD signal speaks to short-term bounce probability. ChartNerdTA’s cycle work speaks to what typically follows the bounce, and in both 2019 and 2022, a deeper low came after.
XRP was trading near $1.33 as of mid-April 2026, down more than 63% from its July 2025 high. Whether this cycle follows the slow 2018 grind along the 200-week EMA or the fast 2022 breakdown through it is the question the chart has not yet answered.
The setups going into both looked nearly identical to this one too.
