The Bitcoin bull market did not start this week. It started in early March. That is the view from on-chain data, where a widely tracked flow indicator just confirmed what price had not yet shown the broader public.

The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse, or IFP, crossed above its 90-day moving average this week. According to CryptoQuant contributor RugaResearch in a March 6 report, this is the first time that crossover has occurred in roughly 12 months. The IFP tracks Bitcoin moving between spot exchanges and derivatives platforms. When that flow shifts toward derivatives, it reflects traders building leveraged positions in anticipation of higher prices.

Every IFP golden cross since 2016 has preceded a sustained bullish period in Bitcoin. That is not a small data set.

IFP Has Not Been Here in a Year

CW8900, posting on X, put it plainly:

“The $BTC bull market already began in early March. The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse is one of the most accurate indicators showing market trends. This indicator shows trends one step ahead of price movements. The rally will continue until a death cross occurs on this indicator.”

That read comes with historical backing. The IFP spent most of mid-2025 through early 2026 in bear signal territory, declining steadily while Bitcoin fell from $108,000 to $63,000. The crossover this time happened at $72,000. Each prior green zone on the CryptoQuant chart from 2022 forward lines up with a major upward move.

Still, the indicator carries a warning built into its own history. June 2016 produced a 55-day bear trap after the initial cross before the real rally took hold. Late 2024 showed a similar false start before confirming direction. The signal is strong. It is not guaranteed.

The Five-Wave Problem

Bitcoin’s chart does not look clean right now, and technical analysts are saying so clearly.

Morecryptoonl, in a video update shared on X, noted:

“The decline from the high looks like a five wave move down. That is the first sign a pullback has started. But until we see the full structure unfold and support break, I treat this as a correction within the rally, not the end of it.”

In the accompanying video, the analyst explained that Bitcoin climbed 20% from the March low before running into resistance near $78,000. A pullback from that level was not a surprise. What stands out is the structure of the decline. Five waves down is a specific Elliott Wave pattern. It signals the first move of a corrective sequence, not just noise inside a trend.

The possible scenarios are a wave 2 or wave 4 correction. Both can look identical at this stage. What separates them is where price finds support.

67.5K Is the Number

That level is $67,500. Morecryptoonl made the line clear.

As long as Bitcoin holds 67.5K, higher prices remain favored. A three-wave pullback that respects Fibonacci support in the coming days keeps the upside case alive. A break below that level shifts the read entirely.

Bitcoin pulled back roughly 20% from the March high to reach current levels. That move followed a resistance test at $78K that had been flagged in prior sessions. The Strait of Hormuz closure served as the fundamental trigger for sellers. The technical setup, per the X analysis, had been building before that event.

Two indicators are now running in opposite directions. The IFP says the bull run started weeks ago and will hold until a death cross appears on that metric. Elliott Wave structure says a corrective phase is already in motion and needs to prove it has ended before higher prices confirm.

The 67.5K level is where those two readings collide.