Bitcoin is flashing signals that past cycles have tied to major price bottoms, even as one well-known pattern warns the drop may not be over. Two separate readings are pointing in slightly different directions, and the gap between them is what has traders watching closely.

Bloomberg reported this week that several on-chain indicators historically tied to the end of Bitcoin bear markets are now triggering. The MVRV Z Score has slid to around 0.38. That level has, in prior cycles, marked a zone where Bitcoin was trading well below its fair value.

On-Chain Signals Flash Undervaluation

According to BitcoinNewsCom on X, Bloomberg noted that the realized price sits near $54,000 and the 200-week moving average is holding around $58,000. Those two figures form the core of what Bloomberg described as a potential bottom range between $45K and $55,000. A recovery from that zone, though, will need fresh demand to hold.

“After losing nearly 50% since October, several indicators that historically mark the end of Bitcoin bear markets suggest the selloff may be entering its final phase,” as BitcoinNewsCom posted on X.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in over $1.6 billion in inflows over the past month. BlackRock’s IBIT and VanEck’s HODL led those numbers. That kind of institutional buying is being watched as one possible demand catalyst.

The Election Cycle Pattern Still Looms

CryptoPatel on X flagged a longer-term concern. Historically, Bitcoin has dropped more than 75% from its recent all-time high during U.S. mid-term election years. BTC is currently sitting around 52% down from its October 2025 peak.

“If this pattern repeats, we could see Bitcoin at $35,000-$40,000 between November 2026 and February 2027,” CryptoPatel posted on X.

That is a meaningful gap below Bloomberg’s flagged bottom range. If the mid-term cycle plays out the way it has before, the current on-chain signals would be early, not final.

CryptoPatel also pointed out what a drop to that level could mean longer term, describing it as “your biggest buying opportunity” for a target above $400,000. The post carried the standard disclaimer that this is technical analysis only, not financial advice.

Two Readings, One Bitcoin

The tension here is real. On-chain data says the bottom zone may be close or already in range. The election-year cycle says there is more downside left. Both have track records. Neither guarantees what comes next.

What is clear is that Bitcoin has shed more than half its value since October 2025, and the next few months through early 2027 are shaping up as a closely watched window for the broader crypto cycle.