Bitcoin is pressing into territory where resistance has held repeatedly. The daily RSI is testing a downtrend trendline that has been in place since October, and nothing has broken above it yet.

Morecryptoonl on X flagged that the RSI approaching this trendline is not unexpected. A confirmed break above would serve as a short-term bullish signal, but the local downtrend on the RSI formed since October remains intact.

Price Keeps Getting Turned Away

On the 30-minute chart, BTC has pushed into the Value Area High three times. Three rejections. No clean break either way.

SailorManCrypto on X noted price continues pushing into VaH but is getting rejected on the third attempt.

“Resistance is resistance until it is not.”

The range Bitcoin has traded in since early this week is starting to develop what SailorManCrypto describes as distributive behavior. That points toward the lower band of the range, possibly further down. The swing short position stays open unless the range resolves with a break above.

Open interest tells a quieter story. CW8900 on X noted BTC OI is gradually rising while net long positions remain neutral. A breather after the recent rise, with no preparation for a sharp decline visible yet.

Both Sides of the Market Are Loaded

Neither liquidity zone has been cleared. The market is sitting right in the middle of two stacked pools.

Kriptoholder on X laid out the setup clearly. Heavy long liquidity is clustered between $66,000 and $69,000 below current price. Short liquidity is stacked above between $72,000 and $74,000. Delta is positive, pointing to aggressive buying pressure, but price is not pushing higher. That gap between buying pressure and price behavior points to absorption.

The read from Kriptoholder is that a fake move in one direction followed by a sharp reversal to hunt the opposite side is the likely outcome. Liquidity is balanced. Both pools are still in play.

Long-Term Holders Are Realizing Losses

The short-term charts and the on-chain data are not telling the same story right now.

Darkfost_Coc on X placed Bitcoin in the final stage of its bear market, a phase that has repeated across every prior cycle.

“This final phase is about putting long-term holders under pressure.”

The LTH SOPR 30-day moving average is sitting at 0.96, below the 1.0 neutral level. Long-term holders are spending coins at a loss. The yearly average remains at 1.71 but only because longer data inertia slows the pull. The current 30-day reading is what reflects the actual cycle pressure.

Short-term holders have already been under stress for six months, Darkfost_Coc noted. The shift in pressure toward long-term holders follows the same pattern seen in every previous cycle. When LTH SOPR sustains readings below 1.0, it historically marks the window that long-term accumulators watch closely.

The indicator measures when UTXOs are spent, so it picks up fund transfers alongside actual selling. The directional trend it gives remains a solid read on cycle positioning despite that limitation.

The Range Holds Everything Together

RSI at resistance. VaH rejection three times over. OI neutral. Liquidation clusters loaded on both sides. LTH SOPR at 0.96.

No single signal closes the argument. Together they describe a Bitcoin that is not committing to a direction yet. Swing shorts are active and range-bound positioning is the dominant trade.

A break above the range with RSI clearing its October trendline shifts the short-term picture. A break lower sends price toward the $66,000 to $69,000 cluster where long positions are heavily stacked. That zone becomes the next target if support gives way.

The late bear phase Darkfost_Coc describes is the one that tests long-term conviction the hardest. It does not resolve quickly. The approach, historically, requires a long-term timeframe.