XRP has been stuck near its 200-week exponential moving average for roughly seven to eight weeks now, hovering around the $1.40 mark. That is not just a technical footnote. It is a level that has shown up at critical turning points in every prior cycle.

The pattern has drawn attention from chart analysts watching long-term moving averages across crypto assets. According to @ChartNerdTA on X, the current price action around the 200-week EMA is nearly identical to what played out following the 2017 and 2021 peaks.

XRP’s Repeated Dance With This Level

After the 2017 peak at $3.50, XRP came back down to the 200-week EMA and initially bounced. It retested the level multiple times through 2018 and into 2019, each bounce producing a lower high. On the third major touch, the level broke. XRP confirmed it as resistance and then placed its cycle low during COVID in 2020.

The 2021 cycle followed a similar path. XRP returned to its 200-week EMA, produced a relief rally, but buying pressure kept fading. Once the level gave way in 2022, it exposed the rest of the bear market quickly. Both cycles ended with lower highs at every retest, and both confirmed downside once the level was lost.

As @ChartNerdTA noted on X, “depleting buying pressure” showed up across both prior cycle tops, and each rally from the 200-week EMA still eventually gave way to a deeper low.

The current 2025 situation marks the third cycle in which XRP has topped out and returned to test this moving average. The July 2025 high formed exactly at the 200-week EMA. Now the token is floating just above it.

Relief Rally Possible But Traps Waiting

A bounce toward $1.80 or even $2.00 is not off the table. In fact, @ChartNerdTA flagged on X that a move from the current range near $1.16 up to around $2.00 would represent a roughly 91% gain. That kind of move sounds like a reversal. Based on prior cycles though, it has not been.

Every major relief rally from this moving average in 2018 and 2021 set a trap. Bulls saw oversold conditions, saw the percentage gains, and called the bottom. XRP rallied 195% after a 92% drop from the 2017 high and still placed a new low later. That sequence played out twice.

The level at $2.40 is where the outlook shifts. That is the January 2025 high, and according to the analysis shared by @ChartNerdTA on X, XRP remains under systemic resistance until that level is clearly broken. Below it, the structure favors further downside.

Bitcoin Adding Pressure to the Picture

Bitcoin’s own 200-week EMA is entering the frame. @ChartNerdTA pointed out on X that historically, whenever Bitcoin loses its 200-week EMA following a cycle peak, that zone is where it builds a base and marks lows. The current macro backdrop, with the Fed under pressure and energy costs climbing, does not point toward conditions that typically support a renewed bull run.

A potential BTC drawdown toward the $50,000-$240,000 range was flagged as the minimum expected band given current signals. That wide bracket reflects uncertainty, but the directional lean is downward near-term.

The 90 to 70 cent region on XRP is the zone being watched closely. That price range held for much of 2023 into 2024 as resistance before XRP eventually broke out. Now it sits as possible support if deeper downside materializes.

What the Data Points To Now

Two outcomes are on the table according to the breakdown by @ChartNerdTA on X. Either XRP gets its relief rally first, then rolls over for a deeper low later in 2025. Or the correction plays out faster, skipping the bounce entirely and building a base sooner.

The RSI on the weekly timeframe is at historic lows for XRP. That is the signal the bulls are pointing to. But as the same analysis noted, oversold conditions on prior cycles did not prevent new lows. They just made the traps more convincing.

Until XRP clears $2.40 on strong closes, the 200-week EMA at $1.40 stays the defining level. Three cycles. Three retests. Same result every time.