XRP is sitting near $1.41, down roughly 69% from its cycle peak. Most of the current conversation treats that number as evidence the worst is over. The two-week chart does not support that reading.
ChartNerdTA laid out the full macro case on X, examining XRP’s structure across 13 years of cycle data. The argument is built on one pattern that has not missed a single cycle bottom across three bear markets.
The One Pattern That Keeps Showing Up
The Gaussian channel on the two-week timeframe is the center of the analysis. Every time XRP has marked a cycle low, price first entered the channel and produced a bearish trend flip on that timeframe. It happened in 2019. It happened in 2022. Both times, the trend flip marked the actual bottom before any real recovery began.
The lower band of that channel currently sits near $0.96.
According to ChartNerdTA on X, “In every single bear market, XRP’s come back down to the lower band of the regression of the Gaussian channel. So why is this time any different?”
This cycle has not produced a trend flip yet. Price has not touched the lower band. That is the core of the thesis and the reason ChartNerdTA’s base case puts a cycle low between $0.70 and $0.90 forming sometime in 2026.
This builds directly on the symmetrical triangle setup and $0.90 floor analysis already covered here, where two independent chart setups pointed to the same floor. What the Gaussian channel adds is a timing signal, one that has worked every single cycle without exception.
Three Structures Pointing at the Same Zone
ChartNerdTA also identified a convergence of three separate technical structures on the two-week chart. An ascending support trendline that has held for close to six years. A descending resistance line not retested since the November-December 2024 breakout. A falling wedge tying back into the same zone.
As ChartNerdTA posted on X, “You’ve got the ascending support waiting. You’ve also got the descending resistance that could see a backtest. And you’ve also got the falling wedge structure that’s tying right back into this circle.”
All three converge at the same area. He describes it as the potential “final hurdle” before any structural shift becomes possible. XRP could break above it and push to new highs. He does not dismiss that. But prior cycle data gives him a stronger lean toward one more leg lower before the trend flip signal arrives.
A 69% Drop Does Not Confirm a Bottom
Prior XRP bear markets printed corrections of 96% and 85% from peak. Applying a reduced figure to this cycle, roughly 76%, puts the potential low near $0.84. ChartNerdTA also pointed to a specific sequence from a previous cycle where XRP dropped 76%, staged a 168% relief rally, then dropped another 78% after that.
As ChartNerdTA stated on X, “Even if XRP rallies up to $1.80 to $2, there’s still the possibility to drop another 60. Just look at the previous bear market.”
A bounce into the $1.80 to $2 range would not break the bear structure. It would remain a lower high inside a downtrend until $1.80 is reclaimed as support and $2.40 is cleared above it. Those are the two levels ChartNerdTA requires before calling any structural reversal.
XRP held above $1.80 for over 400 days before losing it. That zone is now resistance. Lower highs have been consistent since the downtrend started. Nothing in the current structure has changed that.
What Comes After the Foundation
ChartNerdTA’s longer-term view is not bearish in the permanent sense. The Fibonacci targets above the cycle low run $8, $13, and $27 in sequence. Those come after the foundation year. After the Gaussian trend flip fires. After the base builds.
He does not expect XRP to break its all-time high in 2026. The expansion into those Fibonacci levels belongs to the cycle that follows the low, not the one forming it.
The lower band sits at $0.96. The trend flip has not arrived. Until it does, the structure ChartNerdTA is reading says the bear market is still playing out.
