XRP’s estimated leverage ratio on Binance has pulled back to some of its lowest readings in over a year. The price, meanwhile, is not following it down. That gap is drawing attention from on-chain researchers.
CryptoQuant published a quick-take analysis flagging what it calls a widening divergence between XRP’s leverage ratio and its spot price on Binance. The XRP leverage ratio currently sits near 0.15, down sharply from peaks above 0.55 recorded in mid-2025. Price is holding around $1.30.
Leverage Flushed, Price Still Standing
CryptoQuant researcher PelinayPA, posting on X, described the setup as a market in a phase of building potential energy. According to @PelinayPA on X:
“The market appears calm but is actually in a phase of building potential energy. If the ratio begins to trend upward, it may not just lead to a gradual rise, but to a rapid, squeeze-driven move.”
What makes this reading unusual is what the data shows structurally. Leverage has been flushed out, speculative positions have unwound, and yet XRP has not collapsed to match the ratio. That kind of low-leverage, steady-price setup does not tend to persist for long, according to the CryptoQuant analysis.
Historically, this divergence resolves one of two ways. Either price drops to align with the low ratio, or the ratio climbs sharply as new leverage pours back in, typically alongside a strong move higher. When the ratio is this low, any re-entry of long-side leverage tends to hit a market with thinner resistance, which is what accelerates the move.
What a Squeeze-Driven Move Actually Looks Like
The mechanics here matter. With speculative excess reduced and existing longs not heavily leveraged, a fresh wave of new long positions does not face the same washout risk that often caps rallies. The CryptoQuant data shows the ratio moving sideways at current levels rather than climbing. That sideways drift is the holding pattern.
PelinayPA’s analysis notes that periods like this typically don’t resolve slowly. The market does not gradually climb once leverage re-enters at this setup. It tends to expand quickly and forcefully, because the compressed structure has fewer positions to absorb before price moves.
The chart from CryptoQuant’s Binance data shows the leverage ratio has been at current levels only briefly before each of the two major XRP rallies of the past 18 months, including the move from $0.50 to above $3.40 in late 2024.
Price Holding Is the Signal
The key detail in PelinayPA’s read is not the low leverage itself. It’s that price is holding relatively high despite that low leverage environment. XRP at $1.30 is not responding to the ratio the way a weakening asset would. The price hasn’t fully collapsed.
That is the structural read: the market is no longer being driven by leverage, but buyers are not leaving either. When those two conditions exist together, the next leg tends to be sharper than usual once new participants decide to re-enter.
No specific price target was given in the CryptoQuant analysis. The framing was directional. If the XRP leverage ratio starts trending upward from here, the size of the divergence suggests the move that follows will not be gradual.
