XRP Hits 11 Weeks Rangebound as Break Looms

XRP consolidation has stretched to 11 weeks, with the token locked between $1.30 support and $1.50 resistance. The range is tightening. Something has to move.

The token hit a high near $3.65 in early 2025 before entering a prolonged descent. By January 2026, XRP had dropped to the $1.80-to-$2 support base it had held for over 400 days — and then lost it. What followed was a death cross on the five-day chart, a sharp leg lower, and the rangebound structure that has defined the last two-and-a-half months.

RSI Divergence and a Worrying Signal

According to ChartNerdTA, on X, the five-day RSI picked up from oversold levels beginning in early March and pushed XRP up toward local highs around $1.50 to $1.55 on candle closes.

“These have been the highest candle closes since XRP lost the previous level of support back in January.”

But the RSI signal is flashing a warning. ChartNerdTA noted on X that price is now showing lower highs while the stochastic RSI is printing higher highs as it approaches overbought territory. That kind of divergence often appears before a rejection, not a breakout.

The 20 EMA on the five-day chart sits at roughly $1.54, aligning almost exactly with those March candle-close highs. XRP has been trying to get back to that level. Whether it reaches it or rolls over first is the question the chart has not yet answered.

A Megaphone Taking Shape

ChartNerdTA also flagged on X what looks like a forming megaphone structure on the five-day timeframe. In this setup, price comes into a low, prints a four-wave move between expanding support and resistance, then loses the lower boundary and drops. The wave count on XRP’s current structure, he noted, tracks closely with the bearish version of that pattern.

“Come down, one, two, three, four — then lose the structure.”

This is where the setup gets specific. Wave one was the sharp drop from the highs. Waves two and three were relief bounces. The current move could be wave four, a push toward $1.54 before the final breakdown. None of that is confirmed. But the structure is there to be watched.

Morecryptoonl, on X, noted that XRP price is still following both an orange and white scenario, which remain aligned and continue to allow for higher prices.

“Price has now reached the target zone for the orange wave C of D, although the structure still allows for a further extension of the D-wave.”

So two separate chart perspectives are pointing to the same thing: short-term upside remains possible, but the broader setup has not confirmed a low.

The Trend Line Holding Everything Together

There is a weekly trend line that ChartNerdTA described on X as a key area of interest. It served as support for XRP across multiple points of contact going back years. XRP lost it as support in February 2026 during a large wick. Since then, the token has been attempting to reclaim it from below.

“We’ve had multiple points of contact on this trend line as resistance after losing it as support.”

A weekly close above that line, according to ChartNerdTA on X, would be a meaningful short-term signal. It could also set up what he described as a double bottom breakout scenario, with a measured target back toward the $1.60 to $1.70 range and eventually a retest of the $1.80-to-$2 zone that acted as support for over 400 days.

But reclaiming that zone is a different story. The 20 EMA, the 50 EMA, and the old 400-day support base all sit above current price as resistance. Getting through all three would take sustained buying pressure XRP has not shown since late 2025.

Bitcoin’s Cycle and the Longer Picture

ChartNerdTA pointed out on X that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has held for over a decade. Every post-halving year, Bitcoin has topped and rolled over. XRP historically follows that rhythm. The suggestion is that this current consolidation may resolve into a relief rally toward the EMAs — similar to how prior relief rallies looked constructive, then failed — before a deeper drop later in 2026. He mentioned targets in the 70-to-90 cent range as a possible destination if that pattern repeats.

The falling wedge forming on XRP’s current chart is technically a bullish reversal structure. But as ChartNerdTA noted on X, it can also produce large wicks in both directions that shake out holders before any real move materializes.

XRP holders watching the $1.50 level are watching the right thing. A clean weekly close above it, and above that descending trend line, would shift the short-term picture. Without it, the range continues — and the megaphone pattern gets one move closer to completion.